Kasim Awan

:/

It looks potentially historic

Bear in mind this is a max value, lower Pennine areas will see more like 75-125mm. The rainfall at higher elevations feeds the lower elevations tho, I expect rapid river breaching by Wednesday evening. Every flood event is difficult, areas from N Manchester over to Ilkley look very bad indeed. The “sour spot”.

Hope conditions play ball for you both in Glossop. The rainMax accumulation of 210mm (high altitude) is very alarming indeed. Going to be some sad scenes by Wednesday from those currently being pressurized as it is.

If you want to add your location & weather interests visit your profile >> edit >> fields should appear

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2021011812/iconeu_uk1-1-75-0.png?18-16

Also worth pointing out the high convection rates seen on Thursday indicating the potential for “wrap around” occlusions & disturbances, however > the snow line will be higher than it may potentially be earlier with the (best case) wrf / gfs scenario. By now >…[Read more]

^^ Thank you for that contribution Chris – it largely mirrors my thinking especially for the weekend 🙂

The wind speed, heights and temperature are both key in forecasting the Irish Sea shower streamers. Showers > easier to forecast than troughs.

Based on the conditions of the above factors and what Christ has covered I would gauge at heavy…[Read more]

Thank you. Feel free to invite other people to the forum, great to have 27 on here so far, would be good to see 50 before the weekend’s more conducive conditions <200m.

Risk of organized temporary streamers (locally 3mm/ hour) on Thurs & Fri. Fully conducive above ~250m in these uppers / heights.
Below this & west of Manchester snow depends on longevity of showers & distance from coast, coastal strip will be plagued by a maritime layer throughout Thurs / early Fri. As winds ease into Saturday / Sunday >> the…[Read more]

It’s certainly promising, @kentishsnowmaninyorkshire, the air mass will be more conducive and given the trough looks to be weaker, a less significant warm core will reduce marginality

@hadworse welcome, I will PM you

Should work now, an example of the model system I’ve been working at @winter79

show

>> Wrf for Stockport

EC has a secondary trough development within the colder air + lighter winds
Gfs siding with it

Need to watch the hi res switching towards this otherwise >> hills only.

You should now be able to post the images (see maximum file size allowed)

ECM is East of the M6 sproadic accumulations & significant above 300m

Feasible

Thanks Raul.

Also note my previous post explains why cars & grass experience settling first + why during certain setups (higher ground temp) the duration of snowfall appears to be a factor affecting settling of snow.

Give it a read.

K.

Slidergate17 – this is a complex area of study ultimately if the DP / wet bulb are both at or below 0 in Winter or at Night in Spring snow will begin to stick regardless of soil / ground saturation levels. If marginal there is some influence of ground temps especially on higher specific heat capacity surfaces – (i.e. NOT cars, exposed grass),…[Read more]

Yes, these PM systems are extremely mobile and hence difficult to forecast, especially at this range.

Features of interest will appear I’m sure.

Euro4 is siding on the poorer side wrt the initial pivot on Wed evening (WRF is v good). EC tonight is of interest.

Ultimately the models will either narrow towards either a pivot or a less optimal straight-line front undercut, or even a mix of both. These dynamics will directly affect ground conditions so I will keep an eye on high res trends tomorrow. Met don’t have a warning out yet attesting to the complexity of this set up.

We’re having issuing uploading some images, will take a look at this.

The cold air associated with the event on Wed/Thu sure looks less defined than the 1993 / other “classic” undercuts, so the snow line will hang around at altitude higher. From experience this event may be largely restricted to hills. However, given a more optimal pivot there…[Read more]

It’s thanks to SouthYorks (Dave) that you’re here! And thanks for joining too.

I’m going to take a look at Thursday evening soon, >200m asl favoured as the pivot looks less optimal south of Cumbria / Northumberland. This pivot zone needs to be watched as, whilst not favoured, some output has the pivot zone right over the “Central North of…[Read more]