Kasim Awan

🙂

New record set.

The dynamics of the pivot > improved in last 24 hours. Difficult to see a bust so I’m calling the above will 90% likely verify

Risk of 1-2cm above about 200ft. The 06Z wrf is correct with the current ppn so it’s likely the 12z wrf will verify > 2-3cm fairly widely between 150 and 500ft east of Runcorn ..

Good post again Chris, hat off to thee.

In terms of amounts most likely atm: I will stick to a scattered/ marginal 1-3cm below 150m up to say Runcorn and 2-7cm widely above this altitude in the east. Uncertainty is due to risk of heavier ppn further south (Fmi-Hirlam / ICON to an extent). I fully suspect the Met to be underplaying it.

Why has no warning been issued by the Met? It’s well above the disruption threshold in my locale.

Lots of confusion on the NW thread about this evening’s event. I think some are under playing the potential. It’s more developed than “a slight risk of backedge sleet”.

A heavy sleet / localized wet snow event is most likely below 150m Dave so a blend of the Harmonie and Wrf. Why no warning from the Met? 🤔

Euro4 is credible and sits roughly in the middle of the projected severity, 2-12cm above 200m in the east with a risk of localized slushy coverings lower and further west, maybe 2cm in Congleton more possible towards Stoke. The temporary aspect related to high wet bulb.

The event this evening continues to improve in the high res. It is now likely that a transition towards sleet will occur throughout the region. Precip intensity and duration will control whether this turns to snow. This at present favoured to occurr in more C/E parts of the region. So, areas along or east of the M6 and especially to the SE of…[Read more]

> 18Z has upgraded the structure of tomorrow’s front, increasing interest for a stronger thermodynamic gradient (more optimal conditions for cooling)

My earlier assessment of localized heavy sleet / snow <150M & more substanial covering above in the east as being most likely still applies.

Speak tomorrow afternoon all

Getting that upgrade vibe..
Night all.

You should be ok in terms of road closures K8, this is not a classic snow event. Nontheless I expect (unless the GFSOP verifies) a good covering >200m in the East (potentially disruptive above 300m i.e. Buxton) with a spell of heavy sleet / wet snow giving localized coverings in the Cheshire plain perhaps as far west as St Helens for a short time.

Walsden EA river level forecast projects a breach of the all time record: https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8211?direction=u

ICON is @ upper end of predictions – patchy coverings to low levels potentially disruptive snow above 200m in the east..

This appears to be mostly for 150-200m+ on Thursday night, 1-5cm possible. Late Fri / Sat is more of an interest to low levels *if* the trough does not scupper convection.

Nice to see the site has reached 1,000 page views in the last 24 hours. When we reach 50 members I will start creating snow risk maps for the North.

Hi folks, most of the activity has moved to the regional thread, however feel free to use this too.

Yes you can say what you like on this forum 🙂
I wouldn’t call it amazing tho it’s finely tuned. Tomorrow’s 12Z WRF will be the money call.

Good evening. A cold air undercut tomorrow evening is likely to combine with pivotting to produce a general lowering of the snow-line. The positive is that most high res place the pivotting over Northern England with some output shifting it south into the Midlands, which creates some uncertainty. With the pivot placed over the West Pennines,…[Read more]