Chris Roche

[Chris Roche]

0.9°C, about 6 mm on bins starting to settle on flag stones.

[Chris Roche]

It is starting to stick on some surfaces. Not on the flag stones in the yard yet. 1.5°C falling rapidly.

[Chris Roche]

100% snow here now very big flakes very heavy. 1.9°C.

[Chris Roche]

2.7°C 50-50 rain and snow mix. Very heavy.

[Chris Roche]

I can report very heavy rain mixed with golfball sized coagulated snowflakes. 3.3°C.

[Chris Roche]

3.6 °C now and heavy rain started again

[Chris Roche]

4.1°C here now, 3.8 at Crosby. For what it’s worth that’s about 1.5–2° lower than what the WRF predicted for this time.

[Chris Roche]

5.0 °C here now and 4.5 °C in Crosby. Looking good.

[Chris Roche]

8.2°C now, fell 2.4°C in 20 minutes. 5.6°C now at Crosby.

[Chris Roche]

Temps already starting to drop out West. My Crosby station is down to 5.8°C and dropping quickly under heavy rain whilst it’s still 10.6°C here!

[Chris Roche]

Hi guys,
I posted my thoughts earlier on the NW regional about tonight’s event; will copy below.
I feel like it may be a little more widespread than you recon Kasim just based on past events and gut feeling. I think Merseyside might do alright from it.
Anyway here are my thoughts. Whatever happens I think it warrants a warning or at least a mention from the Met

Tonight.

Latest WRF continues to signpost a significant risk of heavy snow this evening. The exact duration and onset of this depends on your location.

Further north and above 100 m snow is likely from around 19:00. On low ground and further south it’s more like 20:00–21:00.

Likely to be a very swift transition especially if precip is heavy.

Surface temps could fall by 7° in a short time especially further south and on high ground.

Don’t want to make a guess on snow depths as situation is too fluid but certainly has potential for quick accumulation.

Some caveats.

Although the WRF and now other models are showing this scenario, the Met and BBC want absolutely nothing to do with it. The WRF has been rock solid showing this for a few days and it is rarely so wrong at this range. If it is wrong then kudos to Met/BBC but at the moment I am inclined to believe that they are wrong.

A little concerned that there may be transport problems as there will have been no prior warning of possible heavy snow and I am thinking of writing a post on FB to warn friends/Family of the *possible* risk.

We shall see what happens.

Stay safe everyone.

• This reply was modified 3 years, 10 months ago by Chris Roche.

[Chris Roche]

Hi Kasim.
Great to read your posts again; they were very highly valued and always very methodical and thorough which I like a lot.
I have been posting my thoughts on the upcoming days in the NW regional thread and I will summarise them below.

Wed night

WRF 12 Z is an upgrade again.

North of Liverpool heavy snow now showing 18:00-03:00 and above 150 m it’s more like 15:00–03:00!

South of Liverpool things are delayed a bit heavy snow more like 2100–03:00.

thinking Bury > Rawtenstall > Bacup could be the sweet spot.

Thursday and Friday looks good east of M6 for falling snow but as Kasim has noted too much of a maritime layer around the coast so expect graupel/sleet/ice pellets and maybe some lightning. Dew-points are quite low though so you never know during prolonged showers (evaporative cooling).

Saturday should see falling snow to within 1–2 miles of the coast and then right to the coast in the evening, With settling snow as far west as my location at times.

As noted, geo-potential heights are very low; (850 mb altitude down to 1000 m, and 925 mb down to 300 m or so) which is interesting to see.

Into Sunday morning there is a front which could give a surprise snowfall and there is nothing marginal about it so could be good.

Overall if you live over 150 m get excited because you’re going to be battered. Even here I should see some falling snow and hopefully settling snow at some point during the next few days.

I will keep popping in here to read the latest posts when I can.
Chris R

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