Snow and Winter Precipitation Discussion

[Kasim Awan]

> Scott will be here soon, to liven up some model discussion
> Back edge heavy wet snow looking increasingly possible I’d say down to 150m

[Snow]

How much snow will stick and settle across bakewell buxton and snake pass? On Thursday morning

[Kasim Awan]

Possibly a few cm for Buxton and definitely the Snake Pass Charlie. Difficult to make an early forecast for low lying areas. Keep an eye on posts.

[Kasim Awan]

ICON looking interesting today > tentative increases in southerly jet component & cold air block to North.

[Winterof79]

Possible snow event over the weekend for Northern Britain
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U120-21UK.GIF?18-17

Attachments:

You must be logged in to view attached files.

Kirkburton 163 mt ASL

[Kasim Awan]

Given the low 500mb temps & heights I would be surprised if something does not develop during this time period (weekend etc).

[Ramp, Rochdale/Saddleworth border.]

Good afternoon all 👍

[WillinGlossop]

Good afternoon/evening interesting week of weather upon us

[Weather enthusiast]

They can deliver some good snowfalls, remember this one from the last Monday before Christmas 1993

• This reply was modified 3 years, 10 months ago by Weather enthusiast.
• This reply was modified 3 years, 10 months ago by Weather enthusiast.

[Kasim Awan]

We’re having issuing uploading some images, will take a look at this.

The cold air associated with the event on Wed/Thu sure looks less defined than the 1993 / other “classic” undercuts, so the snow line will hang around at altitude higher. From experience this event may be largely restricted to hills. However, given a more optimal pivot there is a possibility snow heavy wet snow to low levels west of the M6 & a covering east due to mixing of a shallow maritime layer near the sea.

The problem with the Hirlam/Arpege is that there’s no pivot, the WRF produces a much more pronounced pivot which is also shown on the GFS. Those below 200m ASL should keep a close eye on the pivot as I reiterate.

[Weather enthusiast]

Kasim Awan wrote:

We’re having issuing uploading some images, will take a look at this.

The cold air associated with the event on Wed/Thu sure looks less defined than the 1993 / other “classic” undercuts, so the snow line will hang around at altitude higher. From experience this event may be largely restricted to hills. However, given a more optimal pivot there is a possibility snow heavy wet snow to low levels west of the M6 & a covering east due to mixing of a shallow maritime layer near the sea.

The problem with the Hirlam/Arpege is that there’s no pivot, the WRF produces a much more pronounced pivot which is also shown on the GFS. Those below 200m ASL should keep a close eye on the pivot as I reiterate.

I was referring to the UKMO 12z 120 hr chart rather than Wednesday/Thursday event. 🙂

[Kasim Awan]

Yes, these PM systems are extremely mobile and hence difficult to forecast, especially at this range.

Features of interest will appear I’m sure.

Euro4 is siding on the poorer side wrt the initial pivot on Wed evening (WRF is v good). EC tonight is of interest.

[Winterof79]

ECM just needs a shit south but we’re in the game

Kirkburton 163 mt ASL

[Kasim Awan]

You should now be able to post the images (see maximum file size allowed)

ECM is East of the M6 sproadic accumulations & significant above 300m

Feasible

[Winterof79]

ECM

Attachments:

You must be logged in to view attached files.

Kirkburton 163 mt ASL

[Author]

Posts