Northern England, (NW & Yorkshire) weather discussion January 2021
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Hi Slidergate, it is not a pivot point (stall) it is more a pivot zone (sliding front). This is expected to occurr across the region now tho and be evap cooling lead there might still be thermodynamic issues on the NW side of the pivot. The main factors are air temp and precip rates, still some uncertainty with placement of heaviest ppn. The greatest intensity to be in the SE (Staffs, S/E Cheshire, Derbs & W Yorks altitude here to = 2-8cm widely. Potentially more duration here to as the front slows & pivot theme comes in.. further west esp M6 west the precip duration looks to be slightly less, altitude combining here to *potentially* cause issues locally. Uppers are colder further west tho so likely to see at least some falling / settling snow up to Runcorn level.
So ultimately I do think some heavy wet snow is possible to the coast- however the longevity is more optimal further south east meaning greater accumulations east of the M6. Ofc there’s a risk of a more westwards track which would give Warrington etc a better chance and cancel out M6 based variations. Atm middleground is favoured regarding front front longevity so > transient snow local accumulations in West & 2-5cm East of M6 which I considered in the risk map. Bear in mind the above tho which could change this.
Looking @ the radar this middleground is favoured.
Nowcast!!
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