Northern England, (NW & Yorkshire) weather discussion January 2021
- This topic has 271 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
The event this evening continues to improve in the high res. It is now likely that a transition towards sleet will occur throughout the region. Precip intensity and duration will control whether this turns to snow. This at present favoured to occurr in more C/E parts of the region. So, areas along or east of the M6 and especially to the SE of Manchester i.e. E Chesh. Staffs & W. Yorks favoured for improved thermodynamic heat transfer below 200m. This means I’m quite confident some heavy wet snow will occur here with patchy coverings below 200m.,
Further west (M6 west), whilst optimal conditions are less likely to occur it is still possible under a more westwards track. So the forecast here below 200m is more heavy sleet with the potential for localized wet snow. This diminishing to 70% sleet 30% wet snow on the coast. This is as some high res have trended the precip souh east taking with it the optimal TD conditions.
Kasim Awan
“A spell of heavy precipitation will begin to turn wintry after around 9pm with the potential for disruptive amounts (4cm+) of snow in the east above 250m.
Between 150 and 250 in East Lancs, Yorks, Gtr Mcr, Cheshire, Derbs and Staffs there is a likelihood of some snowfall, producing 2-4cm as a median projection.
Higher elevation areas east of the M6 are favoured for these more significant and locally disruptive values. For example, Queensbury, Glossop, Macclesfield, Buxton.
There is the potential for temporary lying wet snow at lower elevations too, confidence for this is also limited due to the chance of a more SE track and faster movemenr of the front. This is most likely to occur roughly east of Manchester Airport, for say Wilmslow, Stockport, Blackburn, with marginal precipitation becoming increasingly likely west of this location. This does not discount the small possibility of a more westwards track which would bring more central regions of Cheshire, Merseyside and Lancashire at risk of say 1-3cm of wet snow, for example Warrington, St. Helens and Northwich.
This risk whilst totally valid looking at the high res, the outcome of meaningful accumulation being restricted to further East and largely following altitude is favoured. Plus this track does not discount localized heavy precip producing spatially limited temporary heavy wet snow even potentially up towards the coastal strip.”.
So, a finely balanced set up with some interesting potential. Keep an eye on reports this evening. Speak later all.Hi guys,
I posted my thoughts earlier on the NW regional about tonight’s event; will copy below.
I feel like it may be a little more widespread than you recon Kasim just based on past events and gut feeling. I think Merseyside might do alright from it.
Anyway here are my thoughts. Whatever happens I think it warrants a warning or at least a mention from the MetTonight.
Latest WRF continues to signpost a significant risk of heavy snow this evening. The exact duration and onset of this depends on your location.
Further north and above 100 m snow is likely from around 19:00. On low ground and further south it’s more like 20:00–21:00.
Likely to be a very swift transition especially if precip is heavy.
Surface temps could fall by 7° in a short time especially further south and on high ground.
Don’t want to make a guess on snow depths as situation is too fluid but certainly has potential for quick accumulation.
Some caveats.
Although the WRF and now other models are showing this scenario, the Met and BBC want absolutely nothing to do with it. The WRF has been rock solid showing this for a few days and it is rarely so wrong at this range. If it is wrong then kudos to Met/BBC but at the moment I am inclined to believe that they are wrong.
A little concerned that there may be transport problems as there will have been no prior warning of possible heavy snow and I am thinking of writing a post on FB to warn friends/Family of the *possible* risk.
We shall see what happens.
Stay safe everyone.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.