Northern England, (NW & Yorkshire) weather discussion January 2021

[Kasim Awan]

WillinGlossop wrote:

Peak District forecast shows interest too with snow showers mentioned

This appears to be mostly for 150-200m+ on Thursday night, 1-5cm possible. Late Fri / Sat is more of an interest to low levels *if* the trough does not scupper convection.

[Kasim Awan]

ICON is @ upper end of predictions – patchy coverings to low levels potentially disruptive snow above 200m in the east..
Need to watch the other hi res very closely

• This reply was modified 3 years, 10 months ago by Kasim Awan.

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[SouthYorks]

Harmonie, Arpege, WRF-NMM, GFS Para all going for snow to some extent over our region in the early hours of Thursday morning as the cold air dig in.

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[Kasim Awan]

Walsden EA river level forecast projects a breach of the all time record: https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8211?direction=u
Although positively the rainfall in the last 24 hours has been at 40% of the projections (50% being the median). Wednesday is very concerning though especially as the EA use UKMet data.

• This reply was modified 3 years, 10 months ago by Kasim Awan.

[k8]

I have to travel to Stoke on Thursday morning what do you think Kas

[SouthYorks]

Nothing so significant on the East side of the Pennines yet thankfully. Most rivers reporting 1-2m under flooding levels with just a couple of exceptions. Most notable, the Don around Doncaster, specifically Fishlake and Sprotborough, which have exceeded the minor flooding threshold. I think it would have been significantly different had the main rain band been further South today as had been predicted.

[Kasim Awan]

You should be ok in terms of road closures K8, this is not a classic snow event. Nontheless I expect (unless the GFSOP verifies) a good covering >200m in the East (potentially disruptive above 300m i.e. Buxton) with a spell of heavy sleet / wet snow giving localized coverings in the Cheshire plain perhaps as far west as St Helens for a short time.

[Kasim Awan]

Getting that upgrade vibe..
Night all.

[Raul Alonso]

Meaning can you see any upgrades short term Kasim? That will b great news 😉

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISALE43

[Had Worse]

Kasim Awan wrote:

Walsden EA river level forecast projects a breach of the all time record: https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8211?direction=u
Although positively the rainfall in the last 24 hours has been at 40% of the projections (50% being the median). Wednesday is very concerning though especially as the EA use UKMet data.

https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/river-and-sea-levels?lng=-2.09936&lat=53.69100
Something you dont want to see.

Welcome to Royston Vasey, You'll Never Leave.

[Kasim Awan]

> 18Z has upgraded the structure of tomorrow’s front, increasing interest for a stronger thermodynamic gradient (more optimal conditions for cooling)

My earlier assessment of localized heavy sleet / snow <150M & more substanial covering above in the east as being most likely still applies.

Speak tomorrow afternoon all

[Weather enthusiast]

The GFS 0z ensembles have some ridiculous snow amounts around here (SW Manchester) for early hours tomorrow

11 ensembles have 10cm> including the control, Oldham have 17 such ensembles

[Withington, Manchester, 38m ASL]

I could be wrong but it looks as though the 00z runs have increased the potential for Irish Sea shower activity over the weekend. The convective window appears longer and the uppers certainly cold enough at least.

[Ramp, Rochdale/Saddleworth border.]

Seriously considering booking tomorrow off work so I can have a late one tonight and i can’t be arsed trying to get to Littleborough at 05:30 in the morning.
The worry is I book it and it’s another let down.

• This reply was modified 3 years, 10 months ago by Ramp, Rochdale/Saddleworth border..

[Yorkshire Snow Chaser Since 2004]

Thought I’d join Kasim after all your hard work on Netweather and so annoyed how they treated you on there.

Looking like tonight into Thursday early hours have upgraded slightly. Risk of a slight covering 100m+ but not sure it will last. Could be more surprises too.

Gfs Para trending deeper colder now too which gives me hope for East Yorkshire for February.

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