Northern England, (NW & Yorkshire) weather discussion January 2021
- This topic has 271 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 4 years ago by
Had Worse.
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January 19, 2021 at 11:33 am #203
Raul Alonso
ParticipantIt has even dried up out there… seems all the burst of showers north of Mcr atm.
Prospects of Snow over the coming days match atm with Chris and Kasim thoughts yesterday not much has changed. M6 and some elevation 100+ being the main boundary factor. See if we have one last turn around on the 12z and can drag some of cold more south for all the region to be more on the scope.
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISALE43
January 19, 2021 at 12:02 pm #204Jeremy S
ParticipantHarmonie 6z still interesting for some snow on Thur morning perhaps as cold air digs in behind the slow moving front
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This reply was modified 4 years, 1 month ago by
Jeremy S.
January 19, 2021 at 1:33 pm #206SouthYorks
ParticipantMain area of rain looks to be about 100 miles further North than was predicted yesterday, making majority of the Southern extent of the Amber warning area redundant for today. Meto yesterday extended the Amber warning area South and trimmed the Northern extent but that is currently looking like an error.
January 19, 2021 at 1:38 pm #207Had Worse
ParticipantMain area of rain looks to be about 100 miles further North than was predicted yesterday, making majority of the Southern extent of the Amber warning area redundant for today. Meto yesterday extended the Amber warning area South and trimmed the Northern extent but that is currently looking like an error.
I can just imagine the conversation..
Sid?..
yes?, ‘Have you got your hearing aid on’?
‘I want you to trim the Southern part of the Amber warning area and extend it North’Yes boss.
Welcome to Royston Vasey, You'll Never Leave.
January 19, 2021 at 3:01 pm #208Winterof79
Participant06z Euro 4 shifted south…..
Attachments:
You must be logged in to view attached files.Kirkburton 163 mt ASL
January 19, 2021 at 4:23 pm #210Raul Alonso
ParticipantWhat are your views so far on this event @kasim after 12z comes out?
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISALE43
January 19, 2021 at 5:43 pm #211Kasim Awan
KeymasterGood evening. A cold air undercut tomorrow evening is likely to combine with pivotting to produce a general lowering of the snow-line. The positive is that most high res place the pivotting over Northern England with some output shifting it south into the Midlands, which creates some uncertainty. With the pivot placed over the West Pennines, Manchester, Lancashire, Cheshire, Derbyshire and West Yorkshire there is a *risk* of some heavy wet snow to 50-100m temporarily in a fairly localized area where intensity is met in the pivot. The uncertainty is due to dynamics in the pivot which are still not resolved, mostly related to the definition of the cold air draw-in. The uncertainty created means statistically a 175m settling snow contour is gauged with a risk of mixed conditions below. This falling perhals to 100m on the eastern Pennines before lifting into Lincolnshire as the pivot looses vorticity. Again, this is a standard (median) snow line accounting for both: 1) The potential is there for the above, given the very low freezing level achieved by the GFSP 12z and ample cold air draw in on the Harmonie, Icon, Arpege and Wrf.
2) The potential is also there for a much less defined front given failed vorticity which would limit snow to 300m+ which looks likely to retain snow showers on Thursday before the snow line slowly falls. This to 200ft or so by Saturday AM & given the trough is weak expect some fair shower activity on a WNW wind which produces some good interest.Attachments:
You must be logged in to view attached files.January 19, 2021 at 6:10 pm #216Raul Alonso
ParticipantBoom Kasim… that’s an update!!can I say that in here? Lol
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISALE43
January 19, 2021 at 6:17 pm #217Kasim Awan
KeymasterYes you can say what you like on this forum 🙂
I wouldn’t call it amazing tho it’s finely tuned. Tomorrow’s 12Z WRF will be the money call.January 19, 2021 at 6:25 pm #221Weather enthusiast
ParticipantJanuary 19, 2021 at 7:09 pm #223Slidergate 17. Sale , Cheshire
ParticipantIncredible to see such fine margins still with this low, in what would traditionally be considered well within the ‘reliable’ forecast window. Interesting times.
January 19, 2021 at 7:56 pm #225Had Worse
ParticipantEvening all.
Still looking reasonable I see.Sister in law who live sin Grotton, Oldham has to be at Wrightinton Hospital near wigan for 9am Thursday morning.
Just warned here that it might snow.
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This reply was modified 4 years, 1 month ago by
Had Worse.
Welcome to Royston Vasey, You'll Never Leave.
January 19, 2021 at 8:13 pm #227Kasim Awan
KeymasterNice to see the site has reached 1,000 page views in the last 24 hours. When we reach 50 members I will start creating snow risk maps for the North.
Attachments:
You must be logged in to view attached files.January 19, 2021 at 8:13 pm #229WillinGlossop
ParticipantLooking interesting tomorrow night and pretty much through to Tuesday next week on some models… will be interesting to see hi res models tomorrow and over next few days for bands of showers/streamers
10c and heavy recent rain…January 19, 2021 at 8:17 pm #230WillinGlossop
ParticipantPeak District forecast shows interest too with snow showers mentioned
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