Northern England, (NW & Yorkshire) weather discussion January 2021

[WillinGlossop]

Kasim that’s very alarming 210mm eek feel sorry for a lot of people that will be affected by flooding in coming days after all the lockdowns/covid etc on top of struggling businesses… just hope it’s not as bad as models suggest

[Slidergate 17. Sale , Cheshire]

MetO week ahead video forecast seem to downplay the threat of snow at modest levels later in the week in NW Eng, emphasis seemed to be very much on mainly rain showers. The BBC seemed more bullish with their take on things so will be interesting to see how Thur-Fri plays out.

[Kasim Awan]

Bear in mind this is a max value, lower Pennine areas will see more like 75-125mm. The rainfall at higher elevations feeds the lower elevation rivers tho, I expect rapid river breaching by Wednesday evening. Every flood event is difficult so impossible to say which catchments will fare worse areas from N Manchester over to the North Pennines look very bad indeed. The “sour spot”.

• This reply was modified 3 years, 10 months ago by Kasim Awan.

[WillinGlossop]

Kasim yep higher up around here rainfall will bring rising rivers via bleaklow through old glossop… hope not as concentrated as 2002, was looking at that event (summer thunderstorms)… but yes the tributaries to numerous rivers will breach over Wednesday/Thursday as it works through watercourses…

[Kasim Awan]

It looks potentially historic

[Kasim Awan]

:/

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[Had Worse]

As Will, will tell you, there is no where for the water to go as all the reservoirs are full and that means a very angry river Etherow, Glossop brook, River Tame and Goyt that all feed into the Mersey at Stockport.
I can see the trams on the airport line being stopped as they go very close to the river.

Welcome to Royston Vasey, You'll Never Leave.

[Had Worse]

Going for some Zzzz’s, post tomorrow.

Welcome to Royston Vasey, You'll Never Leave.

[Had Worse]

Morning all.

Still raining and i now have a water garden.
Watched bbc forecast this morning and it didnt really fit with the snow prospects for Wednesday night although i haven’t viewed the latest model output.

Welcome to Royston Vasey, You'll Never Leave.

[Winterof79]

Beeb will use Euro4 which has shifted the snow threat North. Nmm better and Arpege average. Harmonie good too

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Kirkburton 163 mt ASL

[Jeremy S]

cant seem to link attachments Kasim , but WRF 0z short range models still showing a rain to snow event for higher ground on Thur morning as the cold air comes in behind the slow moving front.

regards JS

( PS any tips with attachments ? )

[SouthYorks]

Wet all morning in Barnsley but so far only moderate rain. Worst at the moment seems to be further North West.

Snow prospects for Thursday seem limited for South Yorkshire, although Harmonie 6z and WRF-NMM 0z both show a short period over into the early hours of Thursday morning as the cold undercuts the ppn.

GFS seem to keep ppn as rain apart from higher ground and then moves it North as the colder air swings in. Arpege looks similar.

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[SouthYorks]

Jeremy – On ipad, so I’ve saved the image to photos then attached.

[Dkeane3]

Longer range, it looks like turning milder again after monday before a possible colder return

[Had Worse]

Dkeane3 wrote:

Longer range, it looks like turning milder again after monday before a possible colder return

Seems to be the case with the battleground to the north of us as the lps scoot by.
Just needs to track about 150 miles further South and Narnia might get a mention.

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[Author]

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