Northern England, (NW & Yorkshire) weather discussion January 2021

This topic has 271 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 9 months ago by Had Worse.

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January 25, 2021 at 9:44 pm #493

Raul Alonso
Participant

Fascinating guys hopefully we can get something out of it for us snow starved NW 🙂 Close call on Thursday.. the wonders of weather watching

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISALE43

January 25, 2021 at 11:05 pm #494

Kasim Awan
Keymaster

Snow starved?! 😀

January 25, 2021 at 11:14 pm #495

SouthYorks
Participant

Arpege 18z continuing with the snowy theme for Thursday.

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January 25, 2021 at 11:19 pm #497

Raul Alonso
Participant

Never enough snow Kas!!

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISALE43

January 26, 2021 at 9:58 am #498

Slidergate 17. Sale , Cheshire
Participant

Good Morning all, it would appear as though we are in the midst of a classic progressive GFS solution & slightly less progressive ECM solution (over the years I have lost count on how many times this has been modelled)!

For what it’s worth I think anyone over 150m will get a decent event, I can’t see much at levels below unless we see GFS align more to ECMs thinking.. which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility… last week as a case in point!

January 26, 2021 at 12:00 pm #499

SouthYorks
Participant

Meto Yellow warning for snow on Thursday seems to take a middle ground somewhere between Arpege 6z and ECM 0z.

A band of snowfall will likely push northeast into this region during the early hours of Thursday and become slow-moving. Snow may fall to lower elevations for a time with some locations seeing several cm by morning, however above 200 m elevation significant and prolonged snowfall is possible throughout Thursday, with the potential for 15-30cm to accumulate which may lead to transport disruption. Overnight into Friday snowfall will turn lighter and more patchy, and likely become restricted to elevations above 300-400 M, but may see a further 5-10 cm.

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January 26, 2021 at 7:47 pm #502

SouthYorks
Participant

Arpege now seems to have aligned to ECM, so snowfall now looks like being confined to highest ground of North West Yorkshire.

Next potential snow event is looking like Sunday into Monday for our region if ECM is correct.

Further out, days 9/10, according to GFS we could could be going into a period of very cold temps with Easterlies showing up bring8ng snow to more lowland areas on the East side of the country.

January 27, 2021 at 8:08 pm #503

Ramp, Rochdale/Saddleworth border.
Participant

Things are certainly looking interesting from the weekend for the majority of us. 😀

January 27, 2021 at 8:50 pm #504

Had Worse
Participant

I must admit, the scenario is fascinating and it seems like we are getting some form of payback from all those mild winters.

Exciting times.

Welcome to Royston Vasey, You'll Never Leave.

January 27, 2021 at 10:27 pm #505

Withington, Manchester, 38m ASL
Participant

Things are looking very interesting. I think the charts have a bit of 2013 look about them. I can see more western and northern parts of the NW doing well, as well was east of the Pennines and places like Buxton.

I do think Manchester and parts of North Cheshire may miss out if winds are from the SE as they so often are with sliding lows.

Lots of interest to come. I’m hoping Merseyside do well at some point as this is extremely deserved.

January 28, 2021 at 8:17 am #506

SouthYorks
Participant

For Saturday, GFS now has the snow furthest North with it scraping into South Yorkshire before returning South and fizzling out. ECM and ICON are a bit further South with snow making it to Derbyshire. GFS para and Arpege have the snow barely reaching Birmingham, so this is looking like another Midlands event to me.

January 28, 2021 at 11:06 am #507

Had Worse
Participant

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-01-30&id=68d28862-1c83-4413-b1e2-62ea6b382240&details

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January 29, 2021 at 10:39 am #508

SouthYorks
Participant

6z ICON is looking rather good for snow in our region next Tuesday/Wednesday!

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January 29, 2021 at 10:37 pm #510

Kasim Awan
Keymaster

Next Tuesday looks decent. Less precipitation shadow potential. Need southwards corrections.

January 29, 2021 at 10:58 pm #511

SouthYorks
Participant

18z ICON, GFS and GFS para are all similar in that they all have a period of snow for Tuesday currently before a change back to rain Wednesday and then colder air returning in Thursday. ICON and Para look best for most snow, with GFS moving the pon faster and with a fairly speedy transition to rain.

No doubt at this range there will be more chopping and changing as we countdown to next week.

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