Northern England, (NW & Yorkshire) weather discussion January 2021

[SouthYorks]

Potentially another snow event on Tuesday, but according to Arpege Thursday looks more interesting

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[Raul Alonso]

What are your thoughts Kas on next week events for our part of the world? Should be looking at Tue, Thursday, Sat?
I know at this point is difficult guess but..can you share some light on what to look at next?

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISALE43

[Dkeane3]

Is Arpege the only model going for snow on Thursday? GFS looks quite warm…

[Kasim Awan]

Showers heading towards Greater Manchester. Tuesday is marginal, tho interesting with some potential as is the weekend.

[Kasim Awan]

I see that article from 2015 has been posted on netweather hahahaha, it’s actually now quite an embarassing article as I was 16/17 at the time. Have asked MEN to remove it.

[Stelmer]

Greetings!

Finally I get round to posting…. I’m furloughed for 3 weeks from 1st Feb, epic snows welcome during that time as I don’t have to go out in it XD! Meanwhile, this coming Thursday is the 26th anniversary of the Great Yorkshire Dump, a still unbeaten snow event here in Crossgates and a fair bit of Yorkshire.

Outdoor worker, winter forecasts are valued greatly.

[SouthYorks]

Arpege continues with a wintery outlook for Thursday, although at the moment it seems out in its own!

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[Winterof79]

ECM joins the party

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Kirkburton 163 mt ASL

[Kasim Awan]

Snow tomorrow mainly 250m+ away from far North of England. Thursday-Sunday poses much interest.

[Kasim Awan]

Thanks Stelmer for your post. It would be nice if I could spend more time building up this site. The like button plugin has run into an error which is why it’s dissappeared but I still appreciate every post. Let’s see what Summer brings. I will have to move this site to a separate server soon so there will be some downtime, will let you know beforehand. Had put this site on the same server as where my High Res weather data is stored.
Ultimately a place for learning, and where I can vent snow forecasting information to a good community.

• This reply was modified 3 years, 10 months ago by Kasim Awan.

[SouthYorks]

According to both ECM and Arpege 12z runs, large parts of our region could get a pasting on Thursday.

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[Kasim Awan]

The potential with this front is in the slow movenent aspect associated with the pressure from height rises to our NNE. This could lead to serious snowfall accumulations given optimal positioning. Front too strong / high too weak and it will just be a transient front and back edge event.

[Kasim Awan]

The GFS shows this, strong front moving NE quickly pushing in a milder sector. The GFS/GEM are opposing the ECM/Arpege. Too close to call – middle ground favoured so slightly slower progression than gfs. This would allow for better development of front and back edge snowfalls. Note easterly winds, potential minor shadow (heights are low so this WONT BE A 100% STRONG SHADOW). The ECM/Arpege solution needs a watch for some on that the worst snowfall since the 80s.

[Withington, Manchester, 38m ASL]

Fascinating, cheers Kasim.

I’ll be honest as soon as I see easterly winds I often think the worst. Lots of interest anyway.

[Had Worse]

Greetings to you all.

Thursdays outcome is very similar to last Wednesdays. Its either going to be very wet or very white, the latter probably a proper significant snow fall.

I’ve watched the bbc weather on News 24 and Thomaz Shaffernacher (however you spell it), showed white snowy areas from Liverpool NE. I was quite surprised by that, they are usually bullish on events.

Welcome to Royston Vasey, You'll Never Leave.

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