Northern England, (NW & Yorkshire) weather discussion January 2021

[Kasim Awan]

Could produce a covering inland around 2200 tomorrow onwards, potentially a Mersey streamer.

[Withington, Manchester, 38m ASL]

12z EURO4 shows snow cover for most parts of the NW by Saturday morning, most snow seems to be centred around and east of Manchester , very uncertain.

[Kasim Awan]

I think there’s a reasonable chance (55%) of a streamer tomorrow night; Euro4 is OTT though. If it occurrs 1-4cm at low levels, 2-6cm on high ground. Depends on the trough to our south.

[Kasim Awan]

Harmonie looks good.

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[Kasim Awan]

I expect a continued marginal shower situation tonight, into tomorrow before a trough works to increase the westerly flow tomorrow under increasingly conducive conditions upto the St Helens / Runcorn contour – again. Possibility for 1-3cm east of these locations if the streamer comes into fruition on Friday night / early hours of Saturday. Winds incredibly light so if optimal 2-5cm is possible even at relatively low altitudes in the east. This risk will diminish if the trough strengthens in the output – which itself brings interest on Saturday night.

[Kasim Awan]

Yellow = potential for moderate wintry showers locally 1-3cm
Risk of streamers with Morecombe and Sefton bay as convective initiators
Black = modelled limit of maritime layer extent

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[Withington, Manchester, 38m ASL]

The ideal is a double whammy Kasim! 😀

[Kasim Awan]

Hopeful thinking but I think it’s one or the other – the trough will produce falling air limiting convection. At least we will pay for the trough with limited convection.

[Had Worse]

Some interest heading along the red line.

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Welcome to Royston Vasey, You'll Never Leave.

[Kasim Awan]

Not enough instability tonight. Could be a different story tomorrow night tho.

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[Winterof79]

Now then what’s this a Scandi brewing

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Kirkburton 163 mt ASL

[Slidergate 17. Sale , Cheshire]

MetO seemingly not convinced this Sunday front will get further than chester-ish….

[SouthYorks]

Yellow weather warning issued for snow and ice, covering Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Potential for accumulations at low levels well as high ground.

From models, looks like shower activity tonight and tomorrow and then risk from approaching front on Sunday. Tonight and tomorrow therefore, some areas may get lucky whilst others see nothing. Still lots of uncertainty regards track of front on Sunday with some models bringing it in across our region and others taking in a more Southerly route and missing us altogether.

[WillinGlossop]

Heavyish Graupel shower just rattled through… lasted 5 minutes… 3c
Hoping for a streamer tonight and maybe trough to pish through from ni tomorrow evening/overnight 🤞

[WillinGlossop]

WillinGlossop wrote:

Heavyish Graupel shower just rattled through… lasted 5 minutes… 3c
Hoping for a streamer tonight and maybe trough to pish through from ni tomorrow evening/overnight 🤞

Meant feature Sunday overnight from ni oops and pish = push 😂🤣

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