Reply To: Northern England, (NW & Yorkshire) weather discussion January 2021

[Chris Roche]

Hi Kasim.
Great to read your posts again; they were very highly valued and always very methodical and thorough which I like a lot.
I have been posting my thoughts on the upcoming days in the NW regional thread and I will summarise them below.

Wed night

WRF 12 Z is an upgrade again.

North of Liverpool heavy snow now showing 18:00-03:00 and above 150 m it’s more like 15:00–03:00!

South of Liverpool things are delayed a bit heavy snow more like 2100–03:00.

thinking Bury > Rawtenstall > Bacup could be the sweet spot.

Thursday and Friday looks good east of M6 for falling snow but as Kasim has noted too much of a maritime layer around the coast so expect graupel/sleet/ice pellets and maybe some lightning. Dew-points are quite low though so you never know during prolonged showers (evaporative cooling).

Saturday should see falling snow to within 1–2 miles of the coast and then right to the coast in the evening, With settling snow as far west as my location at times.

As noted, geo-potential heights are very low; (850 mb altitude down to 1000 m, and 925 mb down to 300 m or so) which is interesting to see.

Into Sunday morning there is a front which could give a surprise snowfall and there is nothing marginal about it so could be good.

Overall if you live over 150 m get excited because you’re going to be battered. Even here I should see some falling snow and hopefully settling snow at some point during the next few days.

I will keep popping in here to read the latest posts when I can.
Chris R